// PROJECT CASE STUDY
ANONYMISED DEMAND ALLOCATION

Operational Analytics Case Study

Space Request Demand and Allocation

An anonymised case study showing how a live space request register was used to understand demand, backlog pressure, and practical planning opportunities for allocation work.

Role: Space Design Manager Sources: Register, notebooks, reporting outputs Tools: Excel, Python, RMarkdown, Power BI Focus: Demand + backlog + flow

Key Outcomes

909

Requests reviewed across the main register snapshot, covering January 2021 to 11 October 2024.

286

Active requests remained in the live pipeline, equal to 31.5% of the recorded register at extract date.

281

Peak open backlog was reached in August 2024, showing sustained accumulation rather than a short-lived spike.

69%

Of active requests sat in paused or approval-related states, indicating that workflow friction was a major planning issue.

Context

This work started as a reporting and operational planning problem rather than a pure modelling exercise. A live space request register was already being used to track requests, closures, priorities, and supporting notes, but recurring questions from leadership needed more than ad hoc counts. The analysis therefore focused on whether the register could describe incoming demand, show where work was stalling, and support better sequencing of allocation activity.

Scope

The published case study combines two workbook snapshots of the same register, growing from 815 rows in the earlier file to 909 rows in the later extract, alongside Python scripts, notebook experiments, an RMarkdown reporting draft, and portfolio write-ups. The portfolio version concentrates on aggregate demand, backlog, and flow patterns. It does not attempt to publish detailed site-level or request-level allocation outcomes.

Tools & Techniques

The source files show a pragmatic workflow built around tools already available in a secure operational setting, with exploratory modelling used to support planning rather than replace operational judgement.

Python

Used for notebook-based exploration, monthly aggregation, regression tests, and chart generation logic.

Pandas

Used in the source scripts to clean dates, subset fields, engineer calendar features, and reshape register data.

Excel

Used as the live operational register and for formula-led reporting on monthly intake, aged requests, and category splits.

R and RMarkdown

Used to trial automated reporting outputs, including summaries of the oldest open requests for management reporting.

Linear Regression

Used as an exploratory method to test whether backlog and request counts were following a sustained upward trend.

Logistic Regression

Trialled in the source Python work as a classification exercise, but kept exploratory rather than operational.

Time Series Analysis

Used to review requests over time, open requests per month, and the value and limits of simple forecasting approaches.

Data Cleaning and Preparation

Included date standardisation, filtering incomplete rows, and working around a register structure that changed over time.

Operational Reporting

Used to translate raw register data into dashboards, monthly meeting packs, and practical management summaries.

Visuals

Anonymised aggregate

Requests Received Over Time

Monthly intake stayed active across the whole period, with repeated surges rather than a single isolated spike. Peaks were visible in late 2021, spring 2022, and again during summer 2024.

33 18 0 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Oct 24

Demand by Weekday

Requests were more likely to arrive in the middle and later part of the working week, with Wednesday and Thursday clearly heavier than Monday.

Mon
136
Tue
153
Wed
198
Thu
219
Fri
185

Open Versus Closed Pattern

The register was not dominated by new inflow alone. It also contained a substantial active queue, and most of that queue sat in paused or approval-related states rather than delivery states.

Register split

Closed: 623 requests. Active: 286 requests.

Active queue mix

Exploratory model

Open Backlog Trend and Predictive Signal

The notebook and portfolio write-up used linear regression to test whether open requests were rising over time. The source write-up reports an R² of 0.89 and MSE of 404.13, which is strong enough to show a real upward signal, but still better suited to planning discussion than precise operational forecasting.

281 148 14 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Oct 24

Constraints

The register was live, operational, and changed structure over time, which made rigid formula-driven reporting fragile. Status values were not fully standardised, and the allocation field was not suitable for a clean published trend. In the latest extract there were 276 non-blank allocation entries, but they contained 143 different free-text values and many were descriptive rather than categorical. A small number of placeholder rows also carried incomplete date information, so the published story focuses on robust aggregate patterns rather than false precision.

Method

  • Reviewed two snapshots of the same register to confirm the data structure and trend direction over time.
  • Used workbook fields such as received date, closed date, status, priority, category, owner, and allocation notes.
  • Counted new requests by month and reconstructed open backlog by comparing received and closed dates across each month.
  • Examined weekday and monthly demand patterns to separate intake behaviour from backlog behaviour.
  • Used Python notebooks to test linear and logistic regression approaches and to explore simple predictive signals.
  • Cross-checked the modelling story against the portfolio write-ups and reporting drafts so the published case study stayed evidence-based.

Findings

  • The register showed sustained demand rather than sporadic bursts, with 909 requests logged across the reviewed period.
  • Open workload accumulated materially over time, rising from 14 open requests in January 2021 to a peak of 281 in August 2024.
  • The active queue was dominated by paused or approval-related states, which suggests flow constraints were as important as raw intake volumes.
  • The oldest active requests in the latest extract had been open for roughly 980 to 1,133 days, making request age an operational risk in its own right.
  • The source material supports exploratory modelling and operational reporting well, but it supports a clean published allocation-rate metric much less strongly.

Demand Patterns

  • Demand was weighted towards the middle and later part of the working week, with Thursday the strongest intake day and Monday the lightest.
  • May, July, and August repeatedly appeared as heavier intake months, while September and October were lighter in the reviewed data.
  • Annual request volume rose from 226 in 2021 to 274 in 2022, stayed high at 225 in 2023, and had already reached 175 by 11 October 2024.
  • The register therefore showed two distinct stories: steady incoming demand and a separate flow challenge in moving requests through review and approval stages.

Potential Planning Opportunities

The value of the analysis was not only in describing volumes. It also pointed to where planning and allocation activity could be sequenced more effectively.

Identify Pressure Periods

Summer 2024 combined strong intake with the highest open backlog, making it a practical reference point for resourcing and escalation planning.

Separate Queue Types

Approval and pause states accounted for most active work, suggesting reporting should distinguish waiting cases from delivery-stage cases.

Sequence Allocation Activity Better

Mid-week submission pressure suggests triage, review meetings, and follow-up activity could be timed more deliberately around demand rhythm.

Surface Bottlenecks Earlier

Tracking aged requests and approval-stage dwell time would make bottlenecks visible before they become embedded in the backlog.

Support Estate Planning Decisions

Even without a publishable allocation-rate metric, the backlog trend gives credible evidence for discussing workload, prioritisation, and capacity.

Recommendations

  • Standardise status and allocation outcome fields so backlog, approval delay, and completed allocation activity can be reported consistently.
  • Separate intake, active review, approval waiting, and closure metrics in recurring reporting rather than relying on a single headline count.
  • Keep a standing view of aged and high-priority requests so long-running cases are actively managed rather than rediscovered later.
  • Move critical operational reporting away from brittle workbook formulas where possible, using a single transformation layer for future dashboards.
  • Continue using regression and time-series work as exploratory planning support until richer operational drivers are added to the model.

Privacy and Anonymisation

This portfolio version removes organisation names, site names, building names, requestor names, room references, and internal identifiers. Where the raw source included free-text allocation notes or descriptions that could identify services or locations, those details were generalised or omitted. The counts, patterns, and analytical approach remain representative of the original work, but the published narrative has been tightened to protect operational confidentiality.